Stories about Russia running out of precision guided missiles sound like good news. After all, fewer missiles should mean fewer strikes on Ukrainian cities. But the reality is far more complicated.

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. In theory, this leaves an open goal for the hypersonic missiles. But instead of hitting their targets, Kinzhals have been coming ...

Although Russia could likely shoot down some Tomahawks, others would penetrate its air defenses—prompting the Kremlin to warn of dire consequences if America supplies Ukraine with the missiles.